Big hole in Dutch gambling tax revenues
The Belastingdienst (Netherlands tax office) is facing a major revenue shortfall. According to Dutch finance media outlet, Financieele Dagblad, the KSA is expected to announce a massive drop in tax revenue compared to the same period in 2024. The shortfall will be in the region of 25% – equating to around €200m.
This shortfall is despite a tax increase of 4% (from 30.2% to 34.2%) kicking in at the start of 2025. And also, despite a small rise in the number of active licensed accounts.
Why?
Industry insiders suggest tighter player regulations are a major factor, with players accessing the unlicensed market more readily and more regularly. The numbers also indicate that it’s possibly higher spenders who are exploring the unlicensed market to a greater degree in order to avoid deposit limits.
Since October 2025, monthly deposit limits have been limited to €700, dropping to €300 for 18-24 year olds.
Another possible factor is the introduction of bans on sponsorships and certain types of advertising.
Worse before better?
Quoted on LinkedIn, trade organisation Brancheorganisatie VAN Kansspelen said the reported numbers were a clear indicator that the tax increase was “doubly unwise”, adding that the increase was: “ineffective, inefficient and even completely counterproductive, both in terms of the budget and with regard to gambling policy objectives”.
One looming concern is that the tax rate is due another increase – up to 37.8% of GGR from January next year – meaning an effective increase of 7.6% in just over a year. It will be interesting to see if the KSA reviews this decision.
Triple whammy
This is a three-fold problem for the Dutch authorities and gambling industry:
- The hit on tax revenues.
- The likelihood that it is being driven by increased numbers of people playing at unlicensed slots sites with all the risks and dangers that go with that.
- The negative impact – reduced turnover, reduced profits – on legal casinos.
We’ll watch this one closely, hoping that the KSA and other stakeholders in the Netherlands don’t sit on their hands for too long before tackling this.
Read also: What’s going on in The Netherlands?